[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 310813
SWODY2
SPC AC 310812

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
LRD 50 SE BWD 40 SW PRX 20 E HOT 60 W MEM 25 SE MEM 40 S CBM 40 ESE
GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 W SJT 60
ESE LBB 45 WNW CSM 35 ENE CNU 20 SSE UIN 40 E LAF 25 NNW CMH 40 WSW
UNI 60 NNW CSV 30 ESE HSV 10 SE MGM 20 SW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS TROUGH WILL REACH CENTRAL TX AND OK BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...A SEPARATE WAVE NOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL EJECT NEWD OVER
TX/OK AND LOSE AMPLITUDE BY EARLY DAY 2.  AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS N TX AND SRN AR WILL MOVE NWD AS A
WARM FRONT TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY TOMORROW...WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING SRN
STREAM WAVE.  A SEPARATE LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS OK/AR IN ADVANCE OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CYCLONES
WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING FROM
CENTRAL/E TX NNEWD ACROSS ERN OK TO CENTRAL MO.  THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR/LA/WRN TN/MS BY EARLY
TUESDAY.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR NOW ACROSS TX
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED FURTHER BY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.  STILL...WEAK TO MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 F. 
THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST PROFILES...IN COMBINATION WITH
50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.