[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 311627
SWODY2
SPC AC 311626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
LRD 30 N BWD 30 W SPS 30 SSW OKC 60 W MEM 25 SE MEM 40 S CBM 40 ESE
GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 W SJT 35
E LBB 65 ENE AMA 35 ENE CNU 20 SSE UIN 40 E LAF 25 NNW CMH 40 WSW
UNI 60 NNW CSV 30 ESE HSV 10 SE MGM 20 SW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF EVOLVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
WRN SONORA MEXICO WILL TEND TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS
TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING
UPSTREAM SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FROM WRN TX EWD ACROSS N TX DURING THE DAY WHILE TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER TO THE NE ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT IN
ADVANCE OF DE-AMPLIFYING...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK
AND WRN AR. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LARGELY AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD DISTURBANCE. WHILE
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR OWING TO CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING/PROCESSING...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS
PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF OF SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE RED RIVER AND SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM BASE OF
EVOLVING UPPER LOW. HERE...RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15
TO -18 C AT 500 MB WILL OVERSPREAD AN AXIS OF 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL WITH
TIME...BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INVOF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..MEAD.. 10/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.