[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301610
SWODY2
SPC AC 301609

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 35 NE ROW
35 NNW AMA 35 ESE SLN 45 SW IRK 45 NNW SLO 30 ESE OWB 20 NNE CHA 30
NNE ATL 25 NE CSG SEM 25 S MEI 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND OFF
THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW INTO THE PLAINS AND NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS NWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL LOW PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
BAROCLINICITY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

...TX/OK...
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/SRN TX. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING
OF LLJ WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF TSTMS WITHIN WAA REGIME
ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN TX
ENEWD ACROSS N TX/OK INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD
TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/W-CNTRL TX NEWD INTO
SRN OK AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. DESPITE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS AND THE ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE
RESULTANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND INHERENTLY HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY WELL DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...ATTM THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WARRANTING ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES. SOME PORTION OF BROAD 5% AREA MAY WELL NEED TO BE
UPGRADED ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

..MEAD.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.