[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300731
SWODY2
SPC AC 300730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 35 NE ROW
35 NNW AMA 35 ESE SLN 45 N SZL 25 NE BLV 20 WSW BWG 20 NNE CHA 30
NNE ATL 25 NE CSG SEM 25 S MEI 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE E OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE
ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  AS THE TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...A SRN STREAM WAVE /NOW JUST OFF THE SRN
CA AND NRN BAJA COASTS/ WILL EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO NW TX AND
OK.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS N TX/OK IN ADVANCE OF THE
EJECTING TROUGH FROM MEXICO...ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...TX AREA...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY IN A BAND
NEAR AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK
WITHIN A MOIST WAA REGIME.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD MO.  LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS TX WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND THE EFFECTS OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
BAND FROM SW/CENTRAL TX NEWD TO SE OK...BUT THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.  IF A CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE
IDENTIFIED ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...THEN SOME PART
OF THE 5% SEVERE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
UPDATES.

..THOMPSON.. 10/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.