[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291627
SWODY2
SPC AC 291626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
SYR 15 E PSB 35 E MGW 40 WNW EKN 10 ENE UNI 25 SSE MFD 20 WNW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW HVR 50 NNE 3DU
50 WSW MSO 25 N ALW 50 W YKM 30 NW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ACY 10 NE GSO 30
NNW AHN 30 SSE MEI 20 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 25 SE ELP 25 N GDP 30 WNW
HOB 30 WSW LBB 25 SE CDS 30 WNW ADM 55 NE LIT 35 NW HOP 15 WSW BMG
10 ESE SBN 35 WSW MBL 70 ENE MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ATTENDANT
TO THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER NRN WI/SRN L.S. WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION
 AND SLOWLY FILL WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
AND INTO THE NERN STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
NRN MEXICO.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED LAPSE RATES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG. EXPECT
TSTMS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
WITHIN DEEPLY FORCED REGION ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF 75-85 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
/LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/ TO BE ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.

...TX...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED STRONG TSTM OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM
UPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS...IT APPEARS THE WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 10/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.