[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281721
SWODY2
SPC AC 281720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
ANJ 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10
W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 20 NNE OTG 55 NW
RWF 15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 SE MSV 35 SSE
CXY 10 S DAN 25 E CHS ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25 ENE AQQ 10 SE
TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 75
SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40 ESE OFK ANW 20
SW PHP 40 SE Y22 30 SSE GFK 15 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
MID MO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
AS IT CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO
SRN MN BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SURFACE
LOW SWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN OK BY 30/00Z. 

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD
THROUGH THE MID MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N
AS N-CNTRL/NERN NEB. INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL EXPEDITE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHEN
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET
AXIS...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN MN/WI SWD INTO
PORTIONS OF ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-2000
J/KG. FARTHER S...WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY LIMIT
MLCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MO INTO ERN OK/AR DESPITE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE LOW ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT. HERE...VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN
THIS REGION OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS OF EVENT BECOME
MORE CLEAR...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED
ACROSS CURRENT HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA. 

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS
OF ERN OK/AR AS SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLOWLY ERODES CAP.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE APPEARS BE LINEAR GIVEN DEEP FORCING ALONG
FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..MEAD.. 10/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.