[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280733
SWODY2
SPC AC 280732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
PLN 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10
W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 10 E OTG 30 NW RWF
15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25
ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD
...CONT... 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40
ESE OFK 15 N BUB 45 NNE VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 E FAR 35 E INL ...CONT...
30 NNW PBG 30 WNW MSV 30 SE MRB 10 S DAN 25 E CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES SSWWD TO THE ERN OK/NW AR AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  A SURFACE LOW INVOF NE NEB/SE SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD UPPER MI WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND REMNANT LEE TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS DURING
THE DAY AND THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION.

...MS VALLEY REGION...
A BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE GULF STATES AND AS FAR N AS KS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NWD TODAY AND TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST. 
WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE MORE PROBABLE
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE WI AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

FARTHER S...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO MO. 
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

..THOMPSON.. 10/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.