[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270731
SWODY2
SPC AC 270730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE APN 30 NNW MTC
20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 40 NE HKY CAE 25 NE SSI 35 E VLD 25 WNW ABY 35
ENE 0A8 10 NNW UOX 15 SE HOT 45 E DAL 60 NW AUS 65 WSW COT
...CONT... 30 SE YUM 50 W GCN 15 ESE ELY 15 SW WMC 85 NNW WMC 55 E
BNO 40 W 27U 20 NW BZN 20 SSW BIL 40 SSW MLS 35 ESE GDV 65 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MRF 55 N HOB
AMA 45 N GAG 25 S RSL 45 NNE HLC 20 WNW GLD 20 N LHX 40 SE RTN 40
ESE ONM 45 SSW DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW NEARING SFO SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE EWD
LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE CA/NV BORDER AREA NEAR BIH BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE GRT
BASIN LATER THURSDAY AND REACH THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS BY 12Z FRIDAY
AS BROAD SWATH OF WLY FLOW PROGRESSES FROM THE DATELINE REGION TO
THE NE PACIFIC.  THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST IN ITS HANDLING OF
THE CA SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THE ETA AND GFS AND IS PREFERRED AS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES STILL MOVING SWD ON W SIDE
OF MAIN LOW.

...ERN UT/NRN AZ TO CNTRL RCKYS...
A BROKEN LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN CA VORT ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES FROM CNTRL UT/WRN AZ ENE INTO CO/SW WY.  COMPARATIVELY LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGLY-BACKED UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MEAN MLCAPE BELOW 500
J/KG.  IN ADDITION...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.  BUT
COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT...40-50 KT
MEAN WIND SWLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH
WIND...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLNS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD REGION. BACKING OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM DISTURBANCE WILL TEND TO MAKE
CLOUD LAYER WIND PROFILES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAKEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEB...SD AND PERHAPS SRN ND...DESPITE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND ELEVATED NATURE OF MOISTURE INFLOW.  STRENGTH
OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/ MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

FARTHER E...A FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
MN/WI AND IA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IN REGION OF STRONGEST 850 MB
WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER
TROUGH.  WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 12C...SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH SEVERE
HAIL...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

..CORFIDI.. 10/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.