[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261721
SWODY2
SPC AC 261720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL AXN 25 ENE
OTG 20 ESE IRK 25 NW MDH 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 30 W GSO 45 NNW
AGS 40 SSE ATL 15 WNW ANB 15 SSE MSL 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE
JCT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 40 N RNO
50 N BAM 15 E OWY 25 WNW SUN 30 SSE 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE
RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N
REJ 65 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD
60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WHILE A
SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE MS VALLEY.

THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR EPISODIC WARM ADVECTION EVENTS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE OR FOCUSED FOR DEEP CONVERGENCE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

EWD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW SFC WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALLOWING MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER TO RETURN TO MUCH OF KS/MO.  DESPITE THIS MOISTENING
PROCESS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
HEATING/FORCING.  THIS WILL LIMIT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATOP COOLER AIRMASS WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE.  WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IT DOES NOT APPEAR NRN CONVECTION
WILL PROVE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL...ALTHOUGH ANY WARM
SECTOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PERHAPS GENERATE A WIND GUST OR SOME
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

...SRN CA...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD
ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE SWRN DESERT REGION. 
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE INLAND SURGE OF MARINE AIR MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DARROW.. 10/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.