[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260729
SWODY2
SPC AC 260728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 40 W AXN 20
E YKN 50 ESE OMA 35 NW UIN 30 E MMO 25 W CMH ROA 35 SE AND 10 NW LGC
15 SSE MSL 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT ...CONT... 20 WSW
DUG 20 SSW SAD 40 S SOW 55 SSW INW 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM ...CONT...
10 WSW SFO 45 NE MER 45 SSW U31 10 NE EKO 55 NNW SUN 40 E DLN 20 SSE
RIW 50 W EGE 35 SW GUC 15 NE ALS 40 NE PUB 20 E BFF 60 N PHP 55 NNW
MOT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SPLIT PERSISTING ALONG THE BC CST.  DEEPENING LOW
NOW DROPPING SSE OFF THE ORE/NRN CA CST SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR 
SFO/SAC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  STRENGTH AND MOTION OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN AK SUGGEST THAT CA SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING
POSSIBLE.  ELSEWHERE...GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW DEVELOPING OVER KS/MO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EDGE NWD/EWD ON WEDNESDAY AS LEE TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS
OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS.  MODERATE S TO SWLY FLOW S OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SPREAD N ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS.

...CNTRL AND SRN CA...
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND SRN CA ON
WEDNESDAY...N OF 80 KT JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF DEEP UPPER LOW.  THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE
CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER BY MID AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR
OVER THE LAX BASIN NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL VLY.  GIVEN
COLD TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS /AOB -20 C AT 500 MB/... SETUP
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS. 
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE LAX
AREA...WHERE MODERATE MARITIME SWLY FLOW WILL MOST STRONGLY IMPINGE
ON THE CSTL MTNS.  LOW FREEZING LEVELS /AROUND 800 MB/ AND LINGERING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH
HAIL.  THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS...AS PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR VALUES AOA 35-40 KTS.  ATTM...HOWEVER ...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
OFFSHORE...CLOSER TO BASE OF ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH.

...CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY...
SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS/
STORM CLUSTERS IN AREA OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY.  THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT NWD/EWD WITH TIME AS GULF RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
FARTHER S...AN ARC OF SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FROM W TX E/NE INTO WRN/NRN OK...SE KS AND NRN AR/SRN MO.

QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND
STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST
THAT AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL.  BUT
ABSENCE OF A STRONG SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.

..CORFIDI.. 10/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.