[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251725
SWODY2
SPC AC 251724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BVE 35 NW GPT 25 SE
GLH 30 ESE HOT 35 N PRX 20 NE FTW 25 ENE BWD 15 E JCT 50 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 45 SSW PRC
50 E LAS 30 SSE DRA 40 ESE NID 35 SSW RAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ONP 55 SSW RDM
45 E BNO 25 E BYI 15 NNE GJT 20 SE ALS 35 SE RTN 35 WSW EHA 50 E LAA
30 E AKO 30 ESE CDR 45 S PHP 20 W YKN 20 WNW OTG 25 N RWF 35 N MSP
25 ENE EAU 10 NNW MKE 20 ENE BMG 20 WSW CSV 30 NE ANB 25 S CEW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE THE ONLY PROSPECT
FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION.  EVEN SO...IT APPEARS WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY WITHIN ZONE
WHERE SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION HAS A REASONABLE HOPE OF
INTENSIFYING.

LATEST THINKING IS WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD FROM OK INTO MO EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.  WITHIN AN EXPANDING ZONE OF CONVECTION THERE MAY BE
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL OR PERHAPS A WIND
GUST.

...CA...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST AS SPEED MAX
ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEN TOWARD SRN CA COAST LATE
IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRONG SWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SFC
TROUGHING AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
ENOUGH...ROUGHLY 7C/KM...TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY INLAND WHERE SELY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED.  ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION.  HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THEAT IF
ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE.

..DARROW.. 10/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.