[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250731
SWODY2
SPC AC 250730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BVE 35 NW GPT 10 WSW
JAN 30 ESE HOT 35 N PRX 20 NE FTW 10 SE BWD 20 WNW JCT 50 SSE DRT
...CONT... 65 ESE DUG 40 NNW SVC 15 S GNT 20 NNE 4SL 35 N LVS 20 SE
TCC 25 SSW AMA 50 WSW GAG 25 ENE LBL 55 SW HLC 25 WSW BBW 20 S HON
20 WNW AXN 50 ENE STC 40 ESE EAU 25 SSE RFD 25 ENE BMG 45 NW CSV 20
S ANB 30 SSE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S OTH 50 SSW RDM
15 ESE BNO 40 SE OWY 25 NW CDC 45 S IGM 25 SE IPL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM ON
TUESDAY.  ONE BAND OF WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM W TO E ACROSS CNTRL
CANADA...WHILE THE SRN BRANCH WILL CURVE AROUND CLOSED LOW NOW
DEEPENING OFF THE BC CST.  THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP SSE DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS...AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR RNO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF RIDGE
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE SERN STATES.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH E PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF CA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
AND SHOULD REACH THE LAX AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  A
COOL...UNSTABLE CYCLONIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. E OF THE RCKYS...WARM FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN
OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO THE MID
VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GULF CST/LWR MS VLY.
 A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
IMPULSE NOW OVER NV...MAY RETARD NWD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NEB/NRN KS.

...CNTRL CA...
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...MODEST
SURFACE HEATING AND VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 25 C
AT 500 MB/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NRN CA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

FARTHER S...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SE-MOVING COLD FRONT...MORE
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MEAN
700-500 MB FLOW IN THIS REGION LIKELY EXCEED 40 KTS FROM SFO SWD TO
AROUND LAX AND EWD INTO THE CNTRL VLY. THUS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS IF DEEP SUSTAINED CONVECTION DOES INDEED DEVELOP ALONG
FRONTAL BAND.  BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /RELATIVE TO
POINTS FARTHER N/ AND MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIMITING LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION...A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE APPEARS
UNWARRANTED ATTM.  IN ADDITION...UPPER SYSTEM MAY TEND TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE CST DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS
UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT COOLING ALOFT
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR
SUPERCELLS OVER THE CNTRL VLY.

...CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY...
SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIODIC
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS IN AREA OF PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS. THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT STORMS.

A BIT FARTHER S...AN AREA OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE ALONG PORTION OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK
INTO AR AND NRN MS/W TN.  SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY BOOST
MEAN MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG.  BAND OF 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON
PERIPHERY OF GULF RIDGE WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...BUT ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
SHOULD LESSEN THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS.

..CORFIDI.. 10/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.