[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241719
SWODY2
SPC AC 241718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW TUS 35 NNE PHX
15 N INW 30 WSW 4BL 15 ENE 4HV 10 ENE MLF 50 ESE ELY 30 W DPG 25 N
OGD WRL 35 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 SSW MHN 25 W EAR 35 ENE RSL 40 NNE
MHK 35 W LWD 30 SSE OTM 30 SSE UIN POF 35 SSW MEM 35 N MCB 25 SSW
HEZ POE 30 NW LFK 25 ESE JCT 25 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 40 WNW MFR
55 W RBL 10 NW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD AS WRN TROUGH STRENGTHENS WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEYS. 
DESPITE THIS AMPLIFICATION...LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION OF OVERALL
TROUGH / RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD /
SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / OZARKS / SRN PLAINS.

...W TX NEWD ACROSS THE RD RIVER INTO THE OZARKS...
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAIRLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
OZARKS REGION THIS PERIOD.

WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION MAY FOCUS ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LIMITED HEATING ALLOWS
500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF FRONT. 
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES NNEWD
INTO THIS REGION OUT OF NRN MEXICO.

OVERNIGHT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS TX INTO
OK...WHILE OTHER / MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS EVOLVE AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS AFTER DARK.

IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THIS
REGION...ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MOST
FAVORABLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AS UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADING
NNEWD TOWARD SWRN OK LATE.  PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM FEATURE.  OTHERWISE...IT
APPEARS ATTM THAT ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 10/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.