[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240732
SWODY2
SPC AC 240730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 40 SSW ESF
30 NW LFK 55 E JCT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 70 SW SOW 45 WNW
GUP 20 ENE PGA 40 SSW P38 25 SW TPH 25 NNW U31 45 WSW ENV 25 N OGD
35 SE JAC 45 WSW GCC 25 SSE DGW 55 SW LAR 45 SSE GUC 20 NNE LVS 10
NNW DHT 50 SE GLD 25 SSE BBW 25 SSW SUX 35 WSW OTM 25 NE SGF 60 ENE
PBF 30 WSW MEI 20 E PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW 4BK 35 WSW MHS
35 NW SAC 30 WNW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK DEEPENS UPON CONTINUING SE
TOWARD THE ORE CST.  THIS DEEPENING WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONG SYSTEM NOW NEARING THE DATELINE...
AND WILL ALLOW GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE TO BUILD N ACROSS THE SERN
STATES.  ELSEWHERE...A COMPARATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE CA
CST WILL LIFT NEWD IN DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE RCKYS.

AT LWR LEVELS...BOUNDARY NOW DISSIPATING OVER S CNTRL AND SE TX
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NWD LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH NWD MOTION WILL
LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED PRODUCTION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
BY MONDAY...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD REDEVELOP
NWD INTO NRN OK/SRN KS...IN VICINITY OF STALLING COLD FRONT NOW
DROPPING SE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.  THE COMBINED BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF 
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE RCKYS.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS AND WRN OZARKS...
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD OVER N TX.  OTHER STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
STATE...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW MEAN MLCAPE
TO RISE TO NEAR  1500 J/KG.  SUFFICIENT /35-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.  BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 8 TO MINUS 9 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD LIMIT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AND ANY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED.

FARTHER N AND LATER IN THE PERIOD...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND
SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/
DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE RCKYS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS FROM THE NRN OK N/NEWD INTO THE SRN
NEB AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS.  AMPLE /40 KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED CELLS...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
3-4 DEGREES COOLER RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. THUS... SETUP MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL.  UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
EVENTUAL AXIS OF STRONGEST ELEVATED ASCENT AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF
SEVERE IS UNWARRANTED ATTM.

..CORFIDI.. 10/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.