[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231726
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 35 E CNM
10 SW CDS 15 ESE OKC 35 ENE BVO 35 NNE SGF 50 ESE VIH 40 N DYR 45
WSW CBM 15 ESE LFT 25 S HOU 30 NNW NIR 60 W COT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE LAST 24-36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON
PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE...MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WEST.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE ERN
CONUS WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH DISSIPATING / TRAILING
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS TX POSSIBLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

...TX / ARKLATEX REGION...
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND A RETURN TO A LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW / WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD AS
ERN U.S. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND NEW SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RETURN NWD ACROSS TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND
GENERAL HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WEAKENING FRONT...MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WOULD
SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY.

SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS A
MODEST SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...ONLY MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO N TX / SERN OK /
AR.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...AND
THUS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS TO EXIST.

..GOSS.. 10/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.