[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230730
SWODY2
SPC AC 230729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLB 20 SSW SRQ
...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 20 NNE DMN 40 ENE ROW 40 SW CDS 10 SW OKC FSM
10 SSE PBF 25 SSW JAN 20 N CEW 40 SE CSG 20 SSE AND 40 WNW FLO 30 SW
CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DRA 25 SSW BIH
30 SE NFL 35 SSE EKO 30 W PUC 45 SSE CDC 55 SW DRA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 40 NNE VCT
50 S SAT 35 NW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE W TO WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON SUNDAY
...BETWEEN BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NRN BRANCH CROSSING THE RCKYS...NRN
PLNS AND UPR MS VLY.  THE GULF RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO THE LWR MS
VLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS
CONTINUES SEWD AND AMPLIFIES WITHIN MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC.


AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE PLNS/MS VLY REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
 THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REDEVELOP N TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER LATER SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS.  FARTHER N...A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL DROP S ACROSS THE
CNTRL RCKYS/PLNS.

...S CNTRL TX NE TO THE ARKLATEX...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER S CNTRL
AND SE TX...IN ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLING FRONT AND/OR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM DAY ONE PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND.
 RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 8 AT 500 MB/
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.  SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BOOST MEAN
MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON
FRINGE OF UPPER RIDGE...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE TX AS WARM ADVECTION/
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.  WHILE
PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RATHER WEAK...GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG
ELEVATED CAPE. SUFFICIENT /35 KT/ CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 10/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.