[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201729
SWODY2
SPC AC 201728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 45 NNW PNS
10 WSW DHN 45 NE ABY 40 SSW AGS 35 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OXR 30 SSW NID
65 W DRA 35 NE U31 70 SW 27U 35 WNW FCA 20 SE HVR 40 S GGW 45 E MLS
20 NNE DIK 60 NNE MOT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 35 NW IMT 10 W MMO 15
NNE VIH 25 SSE MKO 25 ENE ABI 40 WNW SJT 50 E HOB 10 WNW LBB 20 N
CSM 35 ENE HUT 40 N CNK 30 E BUB 20 NNW LBF 10 N IML 20 ESE DEN 15
NNE TAD 10 SSW LVS 10 NNE TCS 10 NNW SAD 25 WNW TUS 70 WSW TUS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED / SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH MAIN FEATURE BEING LARGE / DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS.  THE TROUGH AXIS -- INITIALLY FORECAST
FROM WRN ALBERTA SWD ACROSS NV / CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA
-- SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN SASKATCHEWAN SWD TO ERN AZ BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...RIDGE WILL PREVAIL /
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS / TN / OH VALLEYS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS / APPROACHING TROUGH.  COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD
FROM MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / WY AND INTO NEB BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING LOW ALONG FRONT / PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 22/12Z.

...PORTIONS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS / MIDDLE MO VALLEYS...
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE /
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD -- CENTERED OVER IA AND INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES.  AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
TO 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT
INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENTLY-STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 10/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.