[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210726
SWODY2
SPC AC 210725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP
FNB SUX FSD STC EAU RFD DEC ARG GGG ACT 40 SW BWD ABI OKC EMP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BVE POE AUS 40
SE DRT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP INK LTS END HUT 55 NNE GCK LAA RTN ABQ
15 WSW SOW PRC SGU MLF RWL SHR DIK 60 NE MOT ...CONT... CMX 10 SE
MBL AZO HUF 45 NE MKL TCL 35 SSE CEW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO FRIDAY MORNING...TO NEAR FSD BY
23/00Z.  SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW INTO EASTERN
NEB/KS AND CENTRAL OK/TX.  AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE WILL BE
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHWEST IA.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED WEST OF DRYLINE AND SOMEWHAT INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HELPING
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE. 

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/MO.  THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN IA/MO INTO EASTERN OK DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.  GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM...LESSENING CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS.
 HOWEVER IF GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED AND
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
IA/MO...AND AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED.

...TX/SOUTHERN OK...
SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW SUBTROPICAL JET ROTATING
ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..HART.. 10/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.