[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200718
SWODY2
SPC AC 200717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MOB 0A8 GAD
AHN AGS 30 S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ART LEB BAF
EWR CXY DUJ 30 NW JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ELO VOK PIA
BLV 15 NW POF 55 SSE HRO FYV CNU LNK 55 WSW YKN VTN BFF DEN TAD LVS
TCS SAD PHX EED TPH WMC BOI S06 FCA 3HT 4BQ Y22 BIS 55 NNE DVL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE LARGE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS.  DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  ETA/GFS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST A RISK
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING FROM MO/IL
INTO MN.  MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WOULD SUGGEST A LOW RISK
OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  GFS SOLUTION ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.  THESE STORMS WOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND WOULD POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL.  OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..HART.. 10/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.