[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191730
SWODY2
SPC AC 191729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YKM EPH FCA 25 N BIL
45 SSW GCC ASE 70 SE PGA 45 E IGM 30 W TRM 20 WNW RAL 20 ENE OXR 25
SE PRB 30 N SJC 30 E UKI 45 NW RBL 15 N MFR 15 NNW RDM YKM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB 25 SE GLH
30 NE MLC 45 SW SZL 35 WNW COU 10 ESE STL 50 SSE MTO 25 SE FWA 10 E
FKL 15 SW PSB 40 S ROA 45 SSE TYS 20 ENE AHN 25 SSW CAE 40 SE CLT 25
SW RDU 25 SE ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AMPLIFICATION
OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG / DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH.  BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SHARP WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN CANADA SWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA
CA...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO THE GREAT
LAKES.

...TN VALLEY REGION...
A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO ADJACENT WRN
KY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT VERTICAL GROWTH SHOULD REMAIN
SUPPRESSED THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE /
WARMING AT MID-LEVELS AS RIDGING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN / LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED
THREAT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...EVEN IF CONVECTION
GROWS SUFFICIENT DEEP LOCALLY TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITHIN MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT AT BEST.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.