[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181625
SWODY2
SPC AC 181623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
ELD 25 WNW LIT 30 SSE CGI 35 ENE OWB 45 S SDF RMG 25 E ANB 15 S 0A8
35 NW LUL 35 SE MLU 30 WSW ELD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE
BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO 20
NNW CMI 45 ESE DTW 15 SSW ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON
TUESDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. 
DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WITH SRN STREAM
JETLETS MIGRATING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC EWD INTO THE SRN
STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE
OH VLY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM OK INTO
AR DURING TUESDAY. 

...MID-SOUTH...
ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITHIN ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME
MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.  SEVERAL
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY AND WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AR-LA-MS AREA...FEEDING OFF OF THE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD FROM TX.
THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO
DECREASING H85 WINDS AND STORMS MOVING FARTHER FROM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS.  

MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY DAY CONVECTION...ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONT FROM SRN AR NEWD
INTO THE LWR OH VLY.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE VEERED AND
WEAKENED BY THEN AND HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
INITIATING TSTMS.  THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 

THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO A MCS AND
MOVE ESEWD.  STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BACKBUILD WSWWD INTO SRN AR AND
NRN MS WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HAIL/WIND THREATS WILL
CONTINUE.  FARTHER EAST...AIR MASS MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ERN KY/MID-ERN TN.

..RACY.. 10/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.