[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180638
SWODY2
SPC AC 180638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSS 45
NNW AHN ANB JAN MLU 35 SE TXK 30 NW LIT ARG PAH 40 SSW SDF LOZ HSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE
BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO BMI
GRR 60 SE OSC ...CONT... ART ALB HYA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO
THE TN VALLEY...

...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
ON TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES. WIDESPREAD WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON DAY2 FROM TX/OK EASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING
AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT STRONG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AXIS OF RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
WILL OCCUR FROM MUCH OF AR INTO WESTERN TN/KY. THIS WILL HELP
WEAKEN CAP AND DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  EASTWARD
SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT DURING THE EVENING MAY BE HAMPERED BY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY.

..HART.. 10/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.