[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170717
SWODY2
SPC AC 170716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF
LUK 45 S LEX 40 S BNA 45 N GLH HOT HRO SZL FNB OMA DSM MLI LAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS GGG FYV OJC BIE
CDR GCC 55 W MLS GDV BIS RWF CGX MFD DUJ ABE 25 SW ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...

FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION ON
MONDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS/OH VALLEYS.  DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER
KS MONDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO MO/IL
OVERNIGHT.  A LARGE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. 
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD INTO
MO/AR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG WARM FRONT OVER IL/IND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THESE
REGIONS.  LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES /6KM SHEAR
OF 40-50 KNOTS AND 3KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2/ APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  PARTS OF AR/MO/IL MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS MODELS CONVERGE ON DETAILS OF FORECAST.

..HART.. 10/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.