[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161628
SWODY2
SPC AC 161627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW HQM 10 NW 4OM
15 ESE FCA 35 WSW PHP 15 SSW BUB 50 NNE GCK 40 NE CAO 10 N SAF 25 SE
PGA 25 WSW DRA 15 NW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIN 20 NNE HUF
45 ENE LEX 15 W HSS 25 W RMG 40 SW MEM 55 N HOT 10 NW UMN 50 N SZL
25 NE UIN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DISLODGED
AND EJECTED NEWD STARTING TONIGHT AS A STRONG IMPULSE DIGS SEWD TO
THE PAC NW COAST.  THE CA TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RAPIDLY TRANSLATE
EWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...THE PAC NW
TROUGH WILL TURN EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN/GREAT BASIN REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE CA
TROUGH.  THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO KS SUNDAY NIGHT.  STRONG SWLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW...AND WILL BE
THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID MS/TN
VLYS.

...MID MS/TN VLYS...
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN TO THE WRN GULF COAST. 
INCREASING SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CA TROUGH WILL
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY...POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID MS/TN VLYS
WHERE STRONGEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STRONGER
TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.