[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140706
SWODY2
SPC AC 140705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CTY 30 WSW SSI
50 W CHS 30 NE CAE 50 E TRI 35 SE LEX 40 NNE SDF 10 SSW FWA 70 SSE
OSC ...CONT... MSS 10 NE MPV 35 E MWN BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 ESE LWT
25 ESE SHR 20 NNW CPR 25 NW LND 20 ESE MQM 50 S S06 30 N 63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS MEAN LOW POSITION.  LEADING SYSTEM WILL
LIFT MORE NWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE ENEWD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT
/EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO ERN SC AND
NRN FL FRIDAY MORNING/ WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ONSHORE
FLOW WARRANT AT LEAST CONDITIONAL...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER
THIS REGION FRIDAY.  INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AS
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING OVER THIS REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS FORECAST SSELY SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN
NC/SERN VA THROUGH 18Z...WITH ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY INHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LARGE RH/S SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SRN
FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MODEST HEATING INTO THE 80S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 
HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN
THE WARM SECTOR VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WEAKENING OF LINEAR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS HEATING COMMENCES.  OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LOW ATTM.

..EVANS.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.