[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131739
SWODY2
SPC AC 131738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
GPT MOB TOI MCN 60 W SAV SSI ...CONT... DAB 45 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI RWF SPW OMA
LNK GRI BUB PIR MBG 75 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 45 NNW BPT
55 SE SHV TXK HOT JBR BNA LOZ HTS PKB MGW 40 ENE EKN CHO DCA ABE 30
SW BDL ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN AL...FL
PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND SRN GA....

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH PERIOD INTO HIGH-AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
COAST. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NWRN ONT TO SERN WY.  EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 AND INTO DAY-2 AS
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. BY
14/12Z...ETA/AVN/NGM AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER NERN OK/SERN KS
VICINITY.  15/12Z THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT EWD AND DEAMPLIFY INTO
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN APPALACHIANS...AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT FROM
POSITION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH.  ASSOCIATED INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD FROM MS VALLEY AND NWRN GULF...CROSSING MUCH OF
FL AND GA BY END OF PERIOD.  AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS FRONTAL ZONE LATE
IN PERIOD...EXPECT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER CAROLINAS
PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN REGION.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW -- NOW EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER OH VALLEY -- SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT
EJECTS NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES DAY-2. 
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AND ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL FIRST HALF OF PERIOD.

...SERN CONUS...
NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL
PLAIN...WITH LEWP-BOW FORMATIONS POSSIBLE.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH A FEW PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEARS.  RISK FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE WITH SWD PROXIMITY TO COAST OVER AL AND FL
PANHANDLE...INCLUDING AREAS HIT BY HURRICANE IVAN LAST MONTH.  ATTM
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IN PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW...AND HOW FAR
INLAND ANY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL PENETRATE.  THIS MAKES OUTLOOK
PROBABILITIES LOWER AND MODE CONDITIONAL WITH NWD EXTENT OVER SERN
STATES.

ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING FROM S TX ACROSS NWRN GULF MAY IMPEDE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN W OF MS RIVER.  HOWEVER...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MS/AL AND
PERHAPS EXTREME SERN LA...STRENGTHENING TO SEVERE LEVELS AS
INFLOW-LAYER INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS.  EXPECT THETAE TO INCREASE
WITHIN GULF AIR MASS THROUGHOUT DAY FROM COMBINATION OF ADVECTION
AND VERTICAL MARINE FLUXES...RESULTING IN SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S
TO LOW 70S OVER NRN GULF AND 60S OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS.  NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 70S DEW POINTS MAY PRECEDE SQUALL LINE OVER FL PANHANDLE
LATE IN PERIOD.  KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE.  EXPECT WEAK LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL TURNING BUT STILL 100-200
J/KG 0-1 KM SRH...AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR..INVOF SFC COLD FRONT.

TSTM LINE MAY WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 15/06Z AS IT MOVES EWD INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EFFECTIVELY OUT RUNNING
FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC
FIELDS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND OVER
REMAINDER GA AND CAROLINAS.

INTENSE/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.