[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141640
SWODY2
SPC AC 141639

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 25 SW SSI
50 W CHS 35 SSW SOP 30 W DAN 35 SE LEX 40 NNE SDF 10 SSW FWA 70 SSE
OSC ...CONT... MSS 10 NE MPV 35 E MWN BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 ESE LWT
25 ESE SHR 20 NNW CPR 25 NW LND 20 ESE MQM 50 S S06 30 N 63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VLY NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD IN WAKE OF THIS
LOW...CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MS VLY WAVE
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AND BE LOCATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
CNTRL FL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
TSTMS...PRIMARILY EARLY FRIDAY.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL FRIDAY
MORNING...BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SWD THROUGH
THE STATE AND ALONG AN OLDER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS FAR S
FL.  STRONGEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRANSLATE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT...GIVEN MORNING H5 FLOW OF 40 KTS
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTS COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1500
J/KG...ISOLD TSTMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST BEFORE 18Z...WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING
PROBABILITIES THEREAFTER.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM ERN VA INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT.
 HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS /H85 AT 45 KTS AND H5 AT 85
KTS/...LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST.

OTHERWISE...DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  12Z ETA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE TOO UNSTABLE OWING TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME. 
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW AS SUGGESTED BY 09Z SREF. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN 90+ METER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...STRONG
LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
BENEATH MINUS 20C H5 TEMPERATURES...THE PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD TSTMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DRY SLOT IS NON-ZERO.  GIVEN A TSTM...ISOLD
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..RACY.. 10/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.