[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130717
SWODY2
SPC AC 130716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
DAB 20 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 15 W PNS 20 N CEW 30 SSE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE 7R4 25 NW MCB
45 E ELD 40 WSW MEM 20 SSE BNA 45 NE TYS 25 SW ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E INL 40 SSW HIB
30 NNW STC 35 SSE FAR 55 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ORF 20 NNW BWI
30 SW AVP 35 SW PSF BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN TIED TO STRONG UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST. 
ETA HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER/STRONGER SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH THIS OUTLOOK. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME SORT
OF SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND E-W ORIENTED COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS.  THIS TRIPLE POINT/LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD ACROSS
NRN FL AND SRN GA OVERNIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SPREADS INLAND IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO SPREAD NNEWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
COASTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER ERN ND/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD
TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS.

...SOUTHEAST...
GFS DEPICTS A 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 100 KT OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THUS...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...WHERE SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG OR JUST OFF SHORE.  THIS
ENHANCED SHEAR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER DARK...AS POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVOLVES OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE/NERN GULF WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL
OVERNIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE SURFACE
BASED STORMS WITH THIS SQUALL LINE.  HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF EXTREME
SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...YIELD SOME CONCERN THAT
ANY STORMS ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE
AND/OR TORNADOES.

..EVANS.. 10/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.