[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111728
SWODY2
SPC AC 111727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW SEM CBM 50
SW MEM ARG POF CGI OWB LOZ 40 SSE LOZ TYS 30 E CHA 60 NW AHN 10 WNW
GSP CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 40 NNE TUS
PHX PRC GCN 65 E GCN GUP GNT SAF LVS 50 WSW CVS INK 60 SSE MAF HDO
ALI 50 N MFE 55 S LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DISTINCTIVELY SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE
MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CONUS DAY-2.  CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK IS FCST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS OZARKS THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. THIS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE TOWARD LOWER OH
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS MN/DAKOTAS.  ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
FRONT/TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN AR LOW SEWD OVER MS COAST --
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS WRN/MID TN...NRN MS...AL AND WRN GA
THROUGH PERIOD.

FARTHER W...BINARY MID-UPPER CYCLONE EVIDENT OVER SWRN CONUS -- WITH
CENTERS OVER AZ AND NRN SIERRAS.  AZ CENTER SHOULD WEAKEN INTO
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION AND EJECT ENEWD INTO CYCLONIC FLOW STREAM
AROUND OK/OZARKS LOW.  MEANWHILE WRN PORTION SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE
CYCLONE AND RETROGRADE SWWD OFFSHORE SRN CA.

...SERN CONUS...
SOME LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION AND TN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH
COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL MIDLEVEL CVA AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING
BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-UPPER JET MAX.
IN LOW LEVELS...CONTINUED FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WARM
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
..FROM NEAR DEEP-LAYER LOW SEWD TOWARD FL.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES --
BARELY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR NEAR-SFC
LAYERS AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS.  MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LOCALLY.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK --
GENERALLY AOB 15 KT FROM SFC-850 MB -- 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS GA/AL BENEATH MIDLEVEL JET. 
ALONG AND E OF SFC TROUGH -- WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
SOMEWHAT BACKED -- THIS LEADS TO 40-50 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE.  THEREFORE LOW-END SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED...BUT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED EVENT STILL
APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.