[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120648
SWODY2
SPC AC 120647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
SAV 30 NW AGS 10 ESE AND 35 WSW GSO 25 ESE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SSI 45 WSW AGS
15 S CHA 25 NW BWG 30 SSW LAF 35 WNW FWA 15 SSE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 55 SW INK
45 NE P07 45 E COT PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC 20 NW AVP
10 NW JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO
TIDEWATER REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EJECT EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD.  

...CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC...
THOUGH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NEWD FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM FRONT/COASTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
SECONDARY AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF E-W ORIENTED WARM
FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH ENEWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  ETA IS MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SECONDARY LOW CENTER...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW
OVER UPSTATE SC BY 21Z WHICH IS LIFTED NEWD INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE DAY...INFLUX OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND IN ITS WAKE.  THOUGH CONVECTION/
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEED EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS NOSE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.  PRESENCE OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY COMPLICATES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP...WITH STRONG
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHALLOW LCL HEIGHTS.  ALSO...ETA IS NOW
FORECASTING SBCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WITHIN WARM SECTOR DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

SUPERCELLS MAY EITHER DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION...OR
IN ITS WAKE WHERE CONVERGENCE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRONOUNCED NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND INVOF WARM FRONT.  SHOULD A
SECONDARY LOW CENTER OCCUR...PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE AFTER
DARK AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE.

..EVANS.. 10/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.