[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101717
SWODY2
SPC AC 101716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 10 W SAD 25
NNE PHX 10 ESE EED 35 S LAS 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U24 45 SSE SLC 35 S
VEL 25 NNE GUC RTN 15 W CVS 25 WNW INK 30 NW MRF 50 W MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY
...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 40 SW MLU 25 NNW TXK 30 NNW MLC 25 WSW BVO 15
NW CNU 15 NW SZL 45 NW STL 10 W OWB 10 NE CSV 30 SSE GSP 25 ENE CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
WRN STATES AND CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NERN AZ AND NM ON DAY 2 PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC HEATING WILL AID CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S F ACROSS THE REGION AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY
KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY
IN WRN NM SHOW PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR
PEAK HEATING.

...SERN US...
THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC HEATING
INCREASES INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.