[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100722
SWODY2
SPC AC 100721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 40 WSW SVC
60 E PHX 25 NNE BLH 60 SSW DRA 60 NNW P38 10 WNW PUC 10 WNW GUC 30 W
TAD 25 S TCC 40 WNW HOB 60 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 25 SSW MCB
30 NNW HEZ 35 NNE SHV 40 WSW PGO 15 W TUL 10 NNE CNU 35 NNE SZL 25 N
SLO 30 NW TYS 15 NE AHN 30 ENE CHS ...CONT... 35 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN U.S...THE
NORTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL STATES MONDAY...AS STRONGER WLYS ARE
DISPLACED NWD ACROSS CANADA.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN SRN STREAM OVER THE
SWRN DESERTS/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...EXCEPT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WITH AXIS OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER/TN RIVER VALLEYS
EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

...FAR SWRN TX INTO THE SWRN STATES...
SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SWRN TX AND NM
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND WSWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN.  IN ADDITION...AXIS OF RELATIVELY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN NM AND SUPPORT
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE BOUNDARY HEATS DURING THE DAY. 
THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ATTENDANT LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT INTO
THE EVENING.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY...AS WSWLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS MODEST /I.E. 20-30 KT/.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
OF STORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SMALL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS.. 10/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.