[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091722
SWODY2
SPC AC 091721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LCH 20 WSW POE
15 SW GGG 15 WNW FTW 70 N ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 55 SSE EHA 30 NNE
LBL 55 NNW P28 35 NNW SGF 25 SE POF HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD
45 S FLG 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE
SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 WSW COS 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN LA/MS/SW AL...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE NWD REACHING THE COAST OF LA BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA AND SRN MS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE RAINBANDS OF MATTHEW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE WELL INLAND BY MIDDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SHOW LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SUNDAY ACROSS ERN MS AND
SWRN AL. THE 18Z FORECAST SOUNDING FOR MERIDIAN MS SHOWS STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH OVER 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS SPREAD NWD...SOME CELLS SHOULD ROTATE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL
CONSIDERING THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD MOVE
NWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF
INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD BECOME
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

....SRN UT/NRN AR...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL PROVIDE
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 2. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MTN
AREAS AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE REGION ACROSS
SRN NV...SRN UT AND NWRN AR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
ASCENT AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -16 C SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 10/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.