[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081636
SWODY2
SPC AC 081634

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 15 ESE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 30 NNW DLS
40 W RDM 40 NNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LCH 30 SW ESF
20 ESE GGG DAL 35 NNW BWD 60 WSW SJT 25 SE INK 35 NNW HOB 45 SW AMA
25 NNW END 25 ENE ARG 40 ESE MKL 25 WSW MSL 25 NW TCL 35 SW SEM 35 S
TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 15 ENE SYR
30 ENE BFD 30 SSE FDY 30 W TOL 50 E APN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
TX ON SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ENERGY DROPPING SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA WAVE DISLODGES IT ON SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK LOW...NOW OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SRN LA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLD SEVERE
WEATHER.

...LOWER MS VLY...
12Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
BASIN WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KLCH AND THEN TO NEAR KSHV BY EARLY SUNDAY.
 THE EURO AND 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...HOWEVER...MAINTAIN PARENT
LOW OFFSHORE...OR PERHAPS JUST INLAND SE LA DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FARTHER SOUTH/WEAKER SOLUTIONS APPEAR CONSISTENT AND MORE REASONABLE
ATTM.

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
RAIN FALLING INTO PARTIALLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ACROSS MS/AL WILL
STRENGTHEN BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIKELY SUPPRESSING MORE TROPICAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO AREAS FROM SRN LA SWD.  AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SHORE OR MOVES JUST INLAND...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OFFSHORE...MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE NW-SE ORIENTED
WARM FRONT.  LOW LCLS COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL TURNING VCNTY
THE FRONT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES.  BUT...THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE REFLECTED BY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..RACY.. 10/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.