[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080723
SWODY2
SPC AC 080722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 15 ESE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 30 NNW DLS
40 W RDM 40 NNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LCH 40 NW POE
10 WNW GGG DAL 35 NNW BWD 60 WSW SJT 25 SE INK 35 NNW HOB 45 SW AMA
25 E BVO 25 ENE ARG 40 ESE MKL 25 WSW MSL 25 NW TCL 35 SW SEM 35 S
TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 15 ENE SYR
30 ENE BFD 30 SSE FDY 30 W TOL 50 E APN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
STRONG TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. 
ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AND NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...THERMODYNAMICS MAY FAVOR SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THESE SYSTEMS ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS...FROM ERN TX/LA INTO THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...SERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E-SE OF H85 LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE OVER
LA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY
HAMPER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...HIGH VALUES OF BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PLUME OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW
KILOMETERS...ALONG WITH LOW LCLS...SUGGEST AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE ARE WARRANTED.

..EVANS.. 10/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.