[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071643
SWODY2
SPC AC 071642

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 10 N INK 70
S CDS 25 NE LTS 30 SSW PNC 55 NNE SZL 35 ENE DBQ 20 NNE MSN 20 NW
IMT 70 WNW ANJ 40 ESE ANJ 65 ENE APN 45 ENE FNT 25 NW DNV 25 W MVN
25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 30 SW GWO 45 WSW SEM 35 WSW DHN 20
ESE PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 25 E SEA
35 WNW DLS 40 ENE EUG 25 N 4BK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE...SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.  THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES NOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY WEAKEN.  UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE POLAR WLYS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PAC NW. 


MEANWHILE..IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN PORTION OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS TX...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF AS AN UPPER LOW BY
THE WEEKEND. 

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD.  NRN PORTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SRN
PORTIONS REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM MO TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  A
LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST.

...S LA AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS...
12Z ETA CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO STRONG WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE
WRN GULF BASIN AND IS THE STRONGEST OF MODELS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS
AND THE 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  WHILE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/
STRENGTHENING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED...WILL SIDE WITH THE
WEAKER MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

THE WEAK LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE SABINE RIVER VLY AND SWRN
LA LATE THURSDAY.  TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AS
LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS ON ERN SIDES OF UPSTREAM TX UPPER TROUGH. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND INCREASED MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PART OF
THE WRN GULF AREA.  LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 12Z ETA IS CORRECT.  AN ANTICIPATED WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE RISKS
WILL BE LOW AND SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.  

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NEWD AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THE NEXT
24-HRS. A BAND OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE SYSTEM
IN THE STRONG WARM CONVEYER AND SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AS THE
ENHANCED UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
ATTM...SEVERE TSTMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY...BUT IF INSTABILITY
ULTIMATELY IS STRONGER...LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE FROM ERN WI INTO PARTS OF MI.

..RACY.. 10/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.