[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061713
SWODY2
SPC AC 061712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 20 SE CNM
30 N PVW 25 N DDC 10 ESE HSI 20 SSW OTG 45 WSW LNR 30 S MLI 15 WSW
VIH HRO 25 WSW HOT 20 NNE BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER TX COAST/SWRN LA...
SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...WILL BE
MOVING EWD INTO TX LATE THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL
LIKELY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COASTAL TROUGH ALONG OR JUST NORTH
OF THE UPPER TX/SWRN LA COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. BACKING LOW-MIDLEVEL
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT RICH MOISTURE NWD FROM THE
WRN GULF BASIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. 

12Z ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW WILL BE STRONGER AND
FARTHER N THAN THE 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS.  GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT N OF THE GULF
COASTAL AREA...QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND
RESULTANT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE.  AS A RESULT OF STRONGER
FEATURES...THE 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM.  ISOLD TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.

INHERITED OUTLOOK INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE...THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE IS TO MAINTAIN
SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.  FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS AN
UPGRADE IF THE SURFACE LOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR LOOK TO BE AS STRONG
AS 12Z ETA SUGGESTS.

...SRN PLAINS...
THERE WILL LIKELY SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
E TX NWD TO THE OZARKS AS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS AND TAPS INTO
GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY.  IT IS LIKELY THAT CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION WILL KEEP INSOLATION AT A PREMIUM ACROSS A LARGE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL
OK SWWD INTO CNTRL/SWRN TX ON WRN PERIPHERY OF INCREASING TROPICAL
PLUME. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BENEATH
H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 12C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY.  

HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKENING NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO WEAKEN.  AS
SUCH...THE PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE LOWER...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 10/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.