[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060700
SWODY2
SPC AC 060658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S MRF 25 S INK 35
NNW AMA 25 N DDC 10 ESE HSI 20 SSW OTG 45 WSW LNR 30 S MLI 15 WSW
VIH HRO 25 WSW HOT 20 NNE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TROUGH OVER SWRN U.S. PAST FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NRN MEXICO TOWARD SRN TX WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING AREA OF
TROPICAL CONVECTION IN WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODELS ALL INDICATING
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN TX COAST BY THU NIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER ERN U.S. SLY FLOW OF MOIST GULF
AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO SRN PLAINS AND SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING
TROUGH ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOIST PLUME  AHEAD OF TROUGH...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN
EXPECTED TODAY AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH.

AN EXCEPTION COULD BE VICINITY TX COAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
 AS TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW OVER SWRN GULF MOVES NWD AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.  LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS TX
COAST AND IF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS QUICKER THAN NOW FORECAST A THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THU NIGHT.

FURTHER N ACROSS TX INTO OK...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR IN THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

..HALES.. 10/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.