[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051657
SWODY2
SPC AC 051656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 40 SSW GUP
40 SW CEZ 40 NNE CEZ ASE 45 ENE FCL 30 SSE FSD 30 NE RST 40 NW CGX
35 NW SPI 15 WNW COU 40 NNE JLN 30 NNW FSM 20 W TXK 25 E POE 30 SE
HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW VCNTY FOUR-CORNERS AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NE AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. 
SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS/ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
ERN CO.  FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN TX TO ERN NM WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
NCNTRL TX-WRN KS LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL NM.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  WHILE BOTH
MODELS AGREE THAT THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...GFS KEEPS SRN PARTS OF THE TROUGH IN NM
LONGER THAN THE ETA.  THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL BE CORRECT.
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG
SEWD INTO CNTRL CA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOWER AND STRONGER SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AS
THE GFS SUGGESTS.

SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN/ADVECT UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS ACROSS SWRN TX/ERN NM NWD INTO WRN KS/EXTREME ERN CO 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STEEPEST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN PORTION OF THIS MOIST AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS FAR W TX AND ERN NM. 
INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER FARTHER N AND E ACROSS THE ADJACENT
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM CO NEWD INTO
NEB/WRN KS.  IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND EXPAND NEWD DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING SPREADS NEWD.  STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
TSTMS.

TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING IS APT TO
BE STRONGEST.  THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.
 THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS MAKES PLACING A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK
DIFFICULT.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.  IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS AS FAR EAST AS CNTRL OK
AND NWRN TX WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

FINALLY...FARTHER W...COLD POCKET ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH BASED
TSTMS ACROSS NWRN NM THAT MAY GIVE ISOLD HAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..RACY.. 10/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.