[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041657
SWODY2
SPC AC 041656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
DMN 75 NNW SVC 50 SW GNT 10 ESE ABQ 25 SW TCC 15 NE CVS 25 WSW LBB
45 NW BGS 25 S MAF P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 15 E JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 45 NNE SAD
25 ESE INW 30 ENE GCN 50 ESE SGU 15 WSW MLF 30 S DPG 25 WSW OGD 20
SW RKS 45 NE CAG 20 NE FCL 45 W GLD 30 ENE GCK 35 WSW P28 50 SSW END
40 W OKC 35 ESE SPS 35 SE DAL 10 ENE BPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS SRN CA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE DESERTS EARLY TUESDAY AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  A LEAD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NM AND FAR W
TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AUGMENTED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
SRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION.  THE FRONT AND APPROACHING IMPULSE WILL
FOCUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. 

...SRN NM AND W TX...
CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM
INTO FAR W TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  COOL OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY
AUGMENT THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE...
ADVECTING/MAINTAINING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. 
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES 
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN NM AND W TX
THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE DIVIDE
FROM SRN NM INTO CHIHUAHUA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING WILL
OCCUR. SBCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE SRN NM MOUNTAINS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...DEBRIS CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD
MAINTAIN A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO W TX. 

VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  HOWEVER...OVER A SMALL PART OF SRN NM AND EXTREME W TX
WHERE LCLS/SRH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW/HIGH RESPECTIVELY...A
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS/W TX DURING THE
EVENING AS THE 50 KT JET STREAK EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS.  IT IS NOT
CERTAIN IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT 
SEVERE STORMS AS FAR NE AS ECNTRL NM/WRN TX PNHDL TUESDAY NIGHT. 
THE ERN/NRN PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL. 
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE STRONGEST TSTMS TO
DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SW TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER
AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER.

..RACY.. 10/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.