[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040642
SWODY2
SPC AC 040640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
DMN 45 WNW TCS 35 WSW ABQ 25 ESE LVS 25 SSW DHT 10 SSW AMA 20 SE PVW
30 NNW BGS 30 SE MAF 15 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG 35 N SAD 20
NW SOW 15 NE GCN 50 ESE SGU 15 WSW MLF 30 S DPG 25 WSW OGD 20 SW RKS
45 NE CAG 20 NE FCL 45 W GLD 30 ENE GCK 35 WSW P28 50 SSW END 40 W
OKC 35 ESE SPS 35 SE DAL 10 ENE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 15 E JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS AS WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS AREA IN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE COULD OCCUR OVER SRN
ROCKIES ON TUE. WITH THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE ERN U.S... A SELY FLOW
OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX INTO NM.

WRN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN E OF NM/AZ
BORDER WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WITH
HEATING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. WITH LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR 8C/KM AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT.

SLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TX PANHANDLE BY
EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
AFTERNOON STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM COULD THEN EVOLVE INTO
MORE OF AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET.

..HALES.. 10/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.