[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031713
SWODY2
SPC AC 031712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
ELP 20 N ONM ABQ 10 W TCC 35 NW PVW 45 N BGS 30 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DUG 30 NNE SAD
25 SE INW 35 N FLG 40 S P38 25 SSW ELY 65 NNW ENV 40 ESE BYI 30 E
BPI 40 SE RWL 30 N 4FC 15 WSW LIC 25 NW LAA 45 NNE EHA 50 E GAG 35 E
OKC 35 NE TXK 20 SSW POE 15 WSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 25 NE JAX
...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 45 NNE SAV 15 W FLO 15 N GSB 25 SE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON MONDAY WITH
AN EWD SHIFT IN THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE ROCKIES...AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A STRONG TROUGH.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AS IT MOVES
EWD ACROSS TX...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE
CA COAST...WILL APPROACH AZ. 

...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 2 AS THEY MOVE EWD ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO TX.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NRN TX...AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SEWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY. SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL/SRN TX WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX.

ONE OR TWO CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OVER WRN/CENTRAL TX AND POTENTIALLY SRN OK WITHIN WAA REGIME
ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST
AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LLJ WEAKENS.  SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION...SIMILAR TO VALUES EXPECTED IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  SOMEWHAT
WEAKER LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST ACROSS WRN TX AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM MORNING STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS INSTABILITY OVER THIS
AREA.  NONETHELESS...25-30 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.  INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS/SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN TX/RED
RIVER VALLEY.

..PETERS.. 10/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.