[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030641
SWODY2
SPC AC 030640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
ELP 20 N ONM 25 E ABQ 10 SE TCC 15 W LBB 25 NW BGS 25 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DUG 30 NNE SAD
25 SE INW 35 N FLG 40 S P38 25 SSW ELY 65 NNW ENV 40 ESE BYI 30 E
BPI 40 SE RWL 30 N 4FC 15 WSW LIC 25 NW LAA 45 NNE EHA 50 E GAG 35 E
OKC 40 NNE PRX 40 NNW GGG 40 NNW HOU 25 SSE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 25 NE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
SRN ROCKIES...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...
PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW CONUS WITH SRN BRANCH FROM SWRN  U.S. EWD 
ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD SRN CA
INTO AZ WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AS A STRONGER
IMPULSE UPSTREAM ENTERS AZ MON AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL ZONE E/W ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL STALL AS NEW SURGE OF
POLAR AIR MOVES SWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK WWD TO ERN NM MON.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT TWO
DAYS TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INTO SWRN TX AND SRN NM...PRIMARILY
E OF MTNS.

30-40KT OF MID/UPR FLOW IN SRN STREAM ACROSS SRN NM INTO WRN TX WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTM
 DEVELOPMENT.  WITH 50S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWWD INTO SRN AND ERN NM
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO SWRN TX...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8C/KM...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG VICINITY HIGHER
TERRAIN SRN NM FAR SWRN TX TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS.  PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO
THREAT.

..HALES.. 10/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.