[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021732
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 35 SW GCN 10
W SGU 35 W U24 40 E EVW 30 E RKS 15 SSW RWL 15 SSW LAR 25 S GCK 30 E
P28 10 ESE PNC 35 W MKO 10 ENE DUA 25 E SEP DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 25 S AGR
60 NE EYW ...CONT... 20 SSE GPT 15 E MGM ATL 20 SW AVL 15 E GSO 25
ENE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 2 ACROSS THE WRN
STATES...AS BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND WILL
BE REINFORCED ON SUNDAY BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ATTM PER WV IMAGERY...AS IT
TRACKS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE EWD WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN CA TO THE SRN ATLANTIC
STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...INITIAL EARLY FALL COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF SC/SRN GA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS
REGION INDUCES A WEAK LEE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SC/ERN GA. 
THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN GULF TO
SRN TX.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SWD INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OK AND ERN NM BY 12Z MONDAY.

...SRN NM TO SRN PLAINS...
SSELY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NWD INITIALLY ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER SWRN NM/FAR W TX.  WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS SEWD TO FAR W TX. 30-35 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND
A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER SWRN NM INTO FAR W TX WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST.  WAA REGIME AND CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX AND
POTENTIALLY WRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SC/GA...
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ BENEATH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 TO 7 C/KM/ WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IF SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH.  MODELS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SC/SRN-SERN GA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GIVEN DEEP WLY FLOW WOULD ARGUE
AGAINST WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP FOR A FEW STRONG AND/OR
SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 10/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.