[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300545
SWODY2
SPC AC 300544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CHS FAY LYH
MRB AVP 30 SSW POU 15 SE ISP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES....AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES.  LATTER FEATURE IS WEAKENING...
AND HAS BEEN SLOWED...AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH BROADER SCALE RIDGE. 
HOWEVER...MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO DIG THROUGH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR LOW LATE TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...LEAD SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BE EARLY WEDNESDAY.  RAPID MOTION OF SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THURSDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY MIGRATE OFF THE NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.  TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE DAY...BUT
WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/
UPPER FLOW REGIME.

COOLING/DRYING OF LOWER-LEVELS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY.  THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS
MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS RELATIVELY
LOW.  LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RETURN FLOW OF
MODIFYING COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS EXPECTED  TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. 
THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PRIOR TO EARLY AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN VIRGINIA/EASTERN MARYLAND INTO NEW JERSEY EARLY IN THE DAY.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE BASED ABOVE DEEP SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION LAYER...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM...AS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 11/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.