[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231659
SWODY2
SPC AC 231658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
7R4 25 ESE HEZ 45 SE GWO UOX 35 ESE JBR 15 SW CGI 45 SW BMG 30 SSE
MIE 20 ESE MFD 20 NNE HLG 30 SE PKB 10 E 5I3 50 SSE TYS 15 SSW SPA
25 E GSO 10 NNE ORF ...CONT... 25 SE JAX 15 SW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAB 15 SW FMY
...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 ESE MLU 40 NNW GLH 45 ENE LIT 50 N LIT 15 ENE
HRO 40 E SGF 35 W MIE 45 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 N BML 25 SE AUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH/TN
VALLEYS...CENTRAL GULF COAST...SRN APPALACHIANS...AND SRN ATLANTIC
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/GULF COAST REGIONS. 
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL
EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM
DIGS AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THEREFORE...A BROAD REGION OF
ENHANCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF
THE ERN U.S. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.  TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE THREAT ARE LIKELY...ONE NEAR
THE LOW CENTER AND INVOF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
INTO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER NEARER THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION.

...OH INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NEWD WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT.  MODELS SUGGEST
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATING VERY STRONG
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  SHOULD HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH
LEADING CONVECTION...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH IT AS IT SHIFTS
NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN
WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS.  ETA AND ETAKF SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S BY 21Z...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
DEGREE OF SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INSTABILITY APPEARS
TOO GREAT TO UPGRADE TO MODERATE ATTM.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
NRN/WRN AL INTO SERN LA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS AND POSSIBLE PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED
AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD STEADILY
EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE DAY.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN DEEP MOIST
PROFILES...SIGNIFICANT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADING UPPER
60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUGGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL /SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG/ WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. 
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEARER THE COAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR NWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. 
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT/COVERAGE OF PRE-SQUALL CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WARRANT MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK FOR
NOW...THOUGH UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...SRN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE DELMARVA...
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  GFS
INDICATES 500 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 KT OVER ERN NC AND THE
DELMARVA BY 25/12Z.  GIVEN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN
INCREASING SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF
SMALL LINES AND SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
THIS REGION.  WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO TAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EVANS.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.