[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230553
SWODY2
SPC AC 230552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
CGI 40 E MDH 30 NNW SDF 30 NNE LEX 25 WNW JKL 15 S LOZ 10 NW CSV 45
NNW HSV 35 SSW MKL 35 WSW DYR 25 SSW CGI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
7R4 30 N MCB 25 WNW MEI 30 E 0A8 30 NE CSG 35 ENE MGR 20 E AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 25 SSW GWO
40 N GWO 50 WSW MEM 50 SW ARG 25 SE UNO 50 N POF 15 SW MIE 20 NNE
CLE ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 10 SSW
PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN AND
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...

...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.  ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS/MID LEVEL COOLING...IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS AN OTHERWISE WEAK BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM WRN TN INTO
CENTRAL KY.

FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY MUCH WEAKER DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE.

LATE DAY1 SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY DAY2
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SFC LOW WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.