[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221801
SWODY2
SPC AC 221800

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE
CRP 25 SSE AUS 55 SSW TYR 20 WNW SHV 25 WNW MLU 35 NNE JAN 20 SSE
MEI 40 S LUL 40 W BVE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
CRP 50 WNW HDO 35 NE JCT 30 ENE ABI 20 E SPS MLC 10 WNW UNO 20 W CGI
20 E PAH 15 SW CKV 25 ENE MSL 25 WSW BHM 10 N PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 60 WNW SAD
40 SSW INW 70 NE INW 40 NNW 4SL 30 SW DHT 65 ENE AMA 40 SW END 30 SE
CNU 10 NW ALN 15 ESE DNV 20 NE MIE 35 WNW CMH UNI 25 SE 5I3 35 NNW
MCN 15 NNE AQQ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN AND E CENTRAL TX...MUCH OF
LA INTO SRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE DEVELOPING FOR
TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OVER THE SWRN AZ/NRN
BAJA REGION EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE SLOWER AS THEY USUALLY ARE WITH CLOSED UPPER SYSTEMS.  TIMING
NOW SEEMS TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM FROM S CENTRAL/SERN NM AROUND 23/12Z
THROUGH NRN PARTS OF TX BETWEEN 23/21Z AND 24/03Z TO OVER THE OK/AR
BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 24/12Z.  MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE A
BIT DISORGANIZED IN MANAGING THE SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AS THEY
BRING ONE STRONG COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE STILL HANDLING HOW THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
SWRN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO TX.  BEST ESTIMATION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE THAT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX BY 24/00Z WITH A STRONG SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND
SWD THRU CENTRAL TX THEN SWWD NEAR THE LRD AREA.  THIS COMBINATION
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH WRN TX AND DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH
FEATURE INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN STRONG
FORCING OF HIGHLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATE
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...SERN QUARTER OF TX THRU LA INTO CENTRAL MS...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE DFW METROPLEX AT
24/00Z NEWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR BY 24/12Z.  SURFACE
TROF/DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED SWD THRU CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL TX AND
ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN TX LINING SWD FROM SWRN AR THRU WRN LA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
GRADIENT/WARM FRONTAL/RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND E-W
ACROSS NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.  AIR MASS HAS DEW POINTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH
TOMORROW.  MODELS GENERATE LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 OVER PARTS OF
SERN TX...AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL JET OF
50-60 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AS
STRONG SRN BRANCH OF A 110-130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME S TX NEWD INTO SRN AL PLACING REGION IN FAVORABLE EXIT
REGION ENHANCING UVVS. THIS LEADS TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70 KT
ACROSS THE SERN TX COASTAL AREAS INTO LA...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
BE SET UP FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW FORMS NEAR DFW SWD THROUGH AUS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS
ERN TX AND WRN LA ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
TORNADOES.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE EWD IN
VICINITY OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN HIGH SHEAR MODERATE CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE 0-1KM HELICITY IF FORECAST AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND
LCL/LFC LEVELS ARE BELOW 2000 FT.  THIS WOULD INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES FROM EXTREME SERN TX ENEWD
INTO SWRN PARTS OF MS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.