[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220634
SWODY2
SPC AC 220634

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
GLS 45 SW LFK 35 SSE TYR 25 NE GGG 35 WSW ELD 30 NNW MLU 40 ESE MLU
30 NNW BTR 30 ESE 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
CRP SAT 45 ENE JCT 30 ENE ABI 15 NW SPS 15 ESE OKC 15 SSW SGF 25 S
BLV 25 WNW EVV 25 NE BWG 40 WSW CSV 15 S BHM 25 SE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 60 WNW SAD
40 SSW INW 70 NE INW 40 NNW 4SL 30 SW DHT 65 ENE AMA 40 SW END 30 SE
CNU 10 NW ALN 15 ESE DNV 20 NE MIE 35 WNW CMH UNI 25 SE 5I3 30 N ATL
25 S CEW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX AND LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
CNTRL TX INTO WRN KY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST...

00Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...TO RETURN ACROSS SERN TX/LA AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD.  AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES RAPIDLY
DOWNSTREAM...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER AR AFTER
00Z/24TH.  IT APPEARS INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL
ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM/DEEPEN...ENHANCING INSTABILITY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MODIFIED DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT.  WITH LLJ
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IT APPEARS WARM
ADVECTION MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE.  SECONDARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN EXIT REGION
OF UPPER JET ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NCNTRL TX.  GIVEN THE
RAPID EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS A RECOVERING WARM SECTOR THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MDT RISK OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.