[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211704
SWODY2
SPC AC 211703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
VCT 10 NNW COT 25 E DRT 50 SE MAF 55 SE LBB 30 SSE CDS 15 NW SPS 35
SW DUA 35 N TYR 55 S SHV 25 SSE POE 25 SSW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 20 NE GBN
60 WSW PRC 65 NNE IGM 35 SW BCE 35 SW 4HV 50 SE CNY 35 SSW GUC 45 SE
ALS 15 NW DHT 20 SSE GAG 25 NW MKO 25 NE HRO 10 N DYR 45 S BNA 10 N
CHA 30 W ATL 15 SE TOI 10 ENE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 45 S LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO TURN EAST TODAY...
THEN ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS BY 
MONDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT VCNTY SCNTRL-SERN TX WILL MOVE NWD AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY. LEE LOW WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE TX PNHDL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A PACIFIC FRONT
MIGRATES INTO W TX.  

...SRN PLAINS/TX...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/TX...PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND NWD INTO AT
LEAST CNTRL TX.  THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  LATE ARRIVAL OF MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS
PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING POST
00Z/23.  UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS MAY BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SERN TX EARLY IN THE DAY.  IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN
FORM... DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.  AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX.  

MEANWHILE...IF MODEL TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM IS CORRECT...TSTMS MAY
INITIATE ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS WCNTRL TX LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL-NRN TX...MAINLY IN THE
DAY 3 PERIOD.

..RACY.. 11/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.